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China’s efforts to “blown†smog through oil upgrades are accelerating. From July 1st onwards, July 1st, China's diesel market will fully implement the "National 3" standard; and then, on December 31st, the national deadline for upgrading national vehicle gasoline "Guosan" to the "National IV" standard is approaching. . The “National Five†standard draft for gasoline, which is known as the most stringent emission standard in China, has also been passed on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival and is expected to be launched in the third quarter of this year.
Experts in the industry anticipate that if oil products are upgraded to the "National Five" standard, the cost will exceed 100 billion yuan. If the problem of cost sharing is not completely resolved, it will be difficult to change the situation that China's oil products will not rise in quality.
Speed
Countdown to oil upgrades
Since 2012, many areas in China have experienced haze over a wide range of days in a row, and the call for air pollution PM2.5 has been increasing. The data show that the emission of nitrogen oxides from motor vehicles accounts for more than one-third of the country's total and is the main carrier of PM2.5 in the air. The quality of oil products has once again become the focus of public opinion.
In view of this, the State Council decided at the executive meeting convened in early February this year to accelerate the upgrading of domestic refined oil quality, and proposed to upgrade the national standard diesel that circulates domestically to the “National III†standard from July 2013, and the national level before December 31, 2013. Vehicle gasoline is replaced by the "National IV" standard. The "fourth" diesel replacement transition period to the end of 2014, the end of June 2013 before the release of "national five" vehicle diesel standard, by the end of 2013 released "national five" vehicle gasoline standards, the transition period to the end of 2017.
Therefore, the domestic oil refining enterprises must speed up the upgrade and ensure the supply of qualified oil products in accordance with the upgrade time for gasoline and diesel standards. PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC must complete the task of reconstruction as scheduled.
“On May 30th, with the final refinery diesel, the diesel was delivered according to the new standard. All the diesel produced by Sinopec has met the requirements of the “National III†standard and completed the upgrade one month ahead of schedule.†The relevant person in charge of Sinopec was interviewed by the reporter Indicated.
It is understood that the current supply of refined oil, PetroChina, Sinopec and other refineries account for about 80% of the share, about 20% of local refineries. Zhuo Zhuo, an information analyst at the company, said that at present, the state-owned refinery has basically completed the upgrading of the equipment, and has the ability to produce "Guilsan" diesel, ensuring that there is no problem with supply. In fact, apart from individual regions in the northwest, most of the country’s two retail oil retail plates have already been “National 3†diesel. However, due to restrictions on oil sources and financial strength and other conditions, the overall progress of private enterprise oil upgrades is not satisfactory. Only the northwest, northeast, and Shandong refineries can meet the “National III†standard.
With the semi-annual "national three" gasoline gasoline limit approach, gasoline and diesel "national five" standard on the agenda, the corresponding oil upgrade is imminent. What is worrying is that since the implementation of the "National One" vehicle standard in 2000, the supply of oil products meeting the standards has been insufficient. It is understood that at present, except for Beijing, which has taken the lead in using the “Jingwu†(equivalent to “National Fiveâ€) standard oil products, some cities in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have implemented “National IV†gasoline standards, and other domestic regions. The "National III" gasoline standard is still implemented.
Under the pressure of environmental protection, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta would like to implement the “National Five†standard for gasoline and diesel in advance. For example, Shanghai announced at the beginning of the year that it is expected to implement the “National Five†standard gasoline equivalent to the Euro V standard in September 2013, and that the “National Five†standard diesel oil may start trials next year.
“Only considering technical conditions, refineries in developed regions such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the Pearl River Delta should have the production capacity of 'National Five' oil products; while most refineries in China, especially local refineries, still need to carry out the equipment transformation and technological upgrading. Achieve 'national five' gasoline production standards. According to Zhao Yongbo, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, the upgrade mission for diesel is even more severe. Currently, only Beijing and Shanghai use the “National IV†standard diesel in parallel, and the refineries that have “National IV†and “National 5†diesel production capacity are Very few.
resistance
100 billion upgrade costs difficult to share
Behind the difficulty of upgrading oil products, the huge initial investment brings upward pressure on costs.
“The biggest cost of oil upgrades is the huge capital investment in new installations in the initial period. This part of capital investment is too short-term cost for current refineries, and the long pay-in period leads to a lack of power for refineries. The main reason.†Zhang Bin told reporters.
According to what he learned from the refinery, if a new gasoline reformer is planned, it is estimated that the investment will be as much as 600 million to 900 million yuan; and the new hydrogenation device and S-zorb device is expected to invest 300 million yuan. yuan. If the estimated 89 million tons of gasoline production in 2012, assuming that all the new equipment, then the matching investment or up to 100 billion yuan. The initial investment in this part will be fully borne by the refinery companies.
The cost of diesel upgrades is just as great. The reporter learned from Jinling Petrochemical that the company now has "National IV" diesel production capacity, but from "National 3" to "National 4", the cost of refining will increase by about 200 yuan per ton. If the estimated diesel production in 2012 is 170 million tons, the cost of domestic diesel upgrading to “National IV†will reach 34 billion yuan, and the cost of upgrading to the “National Five†standard according to the timetable will exceed 100 billion yuan.
“Over the past ten years, Sinopec has invested more than 200 billion yuan in the refining sector.†The above-mentioned person in charge of Sinopec told reporters that in 2010, 2011 and 2012, Sinopec’s investment in the refining sector has increased annually to RMB 20 billion. 25.8 billion yuan and 32.1 billion yuan, and it is expected that it will continue to increase to 33.8 billion yuan in 2013.
Regarding the issue of how to apportion such huge costs, the State Council has previously proposed to rationally determine refined oil prices based on the principle of reasonable compensation costs, high quality and preferential prices, and polluter pays, and to improve the subsidy policies for difficult groups and public welfare industries.
In Zhao Yongbo's view, this means that after the upgrading of oil products, the resulting costs are increased or the “three-three system principle†is adopted, that is, the government, the enterprise, and the consumers respectively bear the government’s compensation for the refining companies’ part of the upgrade costs. In the sales process, the consumer bears some of the costs.
"If gasoline is upgraded from 'National 3' to 'National IV', the price of oil per liter will increase by 0.3 yuan to 0.4 yuan. With the current domestic consumption of 86 million tons of gasoline, the total cost of consumer spending will be as high as 43 billion yuan. However, if the cost is reflected in each consumer, the average annual increase will be 700 yuan/ton," Zhang Bin estimated.
However, current end-users believe that oil prices have been much higher than they were a few years ago and that every price increase will be opposed. During the transition period of oil upgrading, consumers are more willing to choose oil products with relatively low prices, which hinders the promotion of high-quality standard oil products. In addition, the consumption levels in various regions of the country are different, and the quality requirements for oil products are also uneven. It is difficult to unify.
“The price increase can be avoided. There are many ways to share the cost of oil upgrade investment, such as investment policy, subsidy policy, and taxation policy, and the cost of upgrading can be reduced through tax reduction.†Science and Technology Policy and Management Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences Wang Yi, deputy director of the Institute, said in an interview earlier.
Games
The standard is easy to rise and quality is difficult
In the event that the upgrade cost is difficult to amortize, it is the petrochemical interests appeal to try to control the cost as much as possible by reducing the number of labels, and this has met with fierce opposition from the environmental protection and auto industries.
In the formulation of the "National Five" standard for gasoline, the petrochemical industry proposed that the "National Five" standard for gasoline be prohibited from adding manganese-containing additives, which would lead to a decline in the octane number of gasoline and the lack of other high-octane components to make up for gasoline. Due to the lack of octane number, it is recommended to reduce the gasoline number (octane number) from 90/93/97 to 89/92/95.
However, experts in the automotive industry believe that if low-grade gasoline is used in the future, it will automatically detect the tendency of the engine to knock, resulting in increased fuel consumption and worsening emissions. The environmental protection industry and the automotive industry strongly demand that the high number 97 be retained.
“The so-called “national five†standard for oil products is an emission indicator for pollutants, while the label refers to the issue of the utilization efficiency of oil products. Even though there are more fuel consumption emissions, the two are not directly related.†Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that lowering labels is mainly to reduce costs.
According to the analysis of Shell Research, if the number of gasoline is increased from 92 to 96, then every car that consumes 100 tons of gasoline can save about 2 tons of crude oil, but for every 1 ton of crude oil saved, the oil refining industry needs to invest approximately 375 dollars.
Although the final gasoline “National Five†standard was “declining†in the dispute, the game of oil upgrading did not stop. It is understood that after submitting the revised manuscript, the National Standards Committee will initiate the "ministries and committees coordination mechanism," but it is expected that the relevant ministries and commissions will probably have differences.
In addition, on July 1 this year, heavy-duty diesel vehicles will implement the “National IV†standard. “The auto industry is in a dilemma. We hope the relevant government departments can coordinate the results as soon as possible.†At the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Information Conference in June, China Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary general of the Automobile Industry Association, said publicly.
His concerns mainly come from the lack of supply of denitrification agents for the production of "National IV" diesel. “Up to the “National IV†standard, the denitrification agent has not landed completely, although the enterprise says it can produce, but the distance from the realization of the production process to the use is too long and there is a lack of implementation measures. If the implementation of the “National IV†diesel, denitrification agent supply is insufficient , what happens if the car is damaged, what does the consumer tell us about, and how does the law enforcement agency deduct the car?†However, if the implementation of the “National IV†standard is postponed, it will also affect the technical progress and parts suppliers for the automotive industry. Enthusiasm and other great issues.
At the same time, Dongyang was also worried about the regulatory issues surrounding the universal use of "Dongsi" diesel. He also hoped that the government would formulate an effective regulatory measure as soon as possible. "In addition to Sinopec Sinopec, there are more than 20% privately owned refineries and fuel oil supplies. There are also imports. In this case, there is a major regulatory issue in how fuel can meet standards,†he said.